Forecasts and Reliability

With regard to AEMO’s forecasts of whether it will meet the required reliability standards:

It actually makes sense that AEMO would forecast that they won’t meet their reliability standard after a fixed point in the future. It is expensive and inefficient to guarantee today that a particular standard will be met more than N years in the future, where N is probably 2-3 years. The market will resolve any reliability issues long before they arrive.